High Court Ruling Could Push SRD to R450 and Extend It to 18 Million People, Treasury Warns of R93.5 Billion Cost

A recent Pretoria High Court ruling on the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) regulations could dramatically widen who qualifies for the R370 grant and push the monthly amount closer to the national food poverty line. If the ruling is implemented in full, the number of beneficiaries could jump from around 8.3 million today to roughly 18 million, and the monthly value could rise from R370 to about R450.

National Treasury has already responded with a stark warning: extending the SRD in that way would cost the state an estimated R93.5 billion extra every year. In a budget already carrying a wide deficit and a heavy debt-service line, that is not a number Treasury can absorb without either raising revenue, reallocating from other programmes, or delaying implementation.

This guide sets out what the court found, why the beneficiary number nearly doubles, where the R450 figure comes from, what Treasury has said about the cost, and what SRD recipients should do in the meantime. Nothing about the current R370 payment has changed yet.

What the Court Actually Ruled

The judgment tackled several provisions in the SRD regulations that civil society groups have argued for years are unreasonably restrictive. The court found that certain qualifying rules, including the definition of "income" used in the monthly means test and the exclusion criteria that pull people off the grant when a small once-off deposit lands in their account, place the regulations in tension with the constitutional right to social assistance for those unable to support themselves.

Two threads run through the ruling. First, the qualifying threshold has been set so low that people living in food poverty are being disqualified for month-to-month reasons the regulations were never intended to catch, such as a family member sending R700 to help with a funeral. Second, the amount itself, unchanged at R370 for years, no longer reflects what it costs to buy a basic monthly food basket. The court has asked the department to reconsider both.

From 8.3 Million to 18 Million: Where the Number Comes From

The 8.3 million figure is the current number of monthly SRD approvals. It is well below the peak of the pandemic years because the R624 income cap, the Home Affairs data cross-check and the bank-inflow means test have tightened access. Millions of applicants who would otherwise be food-insecure fall out of the pool every month for reasons unrelated to whether they actually have income.

The 18 million figure is the pool that would qualify if the eligibility test were reset to the food poverty line and the strict monthly bank cutoff were relaxed. It is a projection, not a promise. It reflects roughly the number of working-age adults in South Africa living below the food poverty line who do not receive another SASSA grant, are not in formal employment, and are not covered by UIF.

Metric	Current (R370 SRD)	If Court Ruling Applied in Full
Monthly amount	R370	About R450
Monthly beneficiaries	8.3 million	Around 18 million
Means test income cap	R624 per month	Aligned to food poverty line
Estimated additional annual cost	Baseline	R93.5 billion

Not every one of those 18 million would draw the grant every month. The SRD is a monthly means test and any bank inflow above the qualifying level knocks a person out for that specific month. In practice the working figure would be lower, but even a conservative uptake still lands in double-digit millions.

Why R450 and Not R370

The R450 figure ties directly to the national food poverty line, the amount Statistics South Africa uses to describe the minimum monthly spend for a basic food basket. R370 sits well below that line, and it has not been adjusted for inflation. Civil society groups have argued for years that the SRD should at minimum match the food poverty line so that a recipient can actually buy the food basket the grant is intended to cover.

The court did not set a fixed rand amount. What it required is that the department set an amount that meets the constitutional standard for temporary social relief, and pointed to the food poverty line as the appropriate reference. R450 is the working figure being cited in official responses and in Treasury's cost modelling.

Treasury's R93.5 Billion Warning

National Treasury's response has focused squarely on cost. In its published response to the ruling, Treasury put the extra annual cost at approximately R93.5 billion. That figure is built up from three components: the roughly 10 million additional beneficiaries the wider eligibility test would let in, the R80 monthly increase per person, and the administration and payment costs of running the larger caseload.

For scale: the entire SRD programme currently sits at around R36 billion a year. An extra R93.5 billion would more than triple the line item. It is roughly equivalent to the combined provincial health budgets of two of the smaller provinces, or about half of what South Africa spends every year on debt-service costs.

Treasury has flagged three risks: crowding out other spending priorities, a further widening of the fiscal deficit, and pressure on the sovereign credit rating if the additional cost is added without a matching revenue source. It has not said the ruling should be ignored. It has said the implementation route needs to be phased, funded, and legislated, not simply administered.

What Happens Next: The Legal and Budget Timeline

The government has three practical paths. It can appeal the ruling, which pauses implementation while the higher court hears the matter. It can rewrite the regulations to comply with the judgment, which requires a public comment process and gazetting. Or it can fold the changes into the successor Livelihoods Grant already scheduled to replace the SRD from 1 April 2027. The third route is the one being signalled most strongly, because the Livelihoods Grant framework was always intended to sit closer to the food poverty line.

Milestone	Indicative Timing	What It Means
Departmental response to the ruling	Q3 2026	Formal decision to appeal, comply, or absorb into Livelihoods Grant
Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS)	October 2026	First read on how Treasury will phase any additional cost
National Budget speech 2027	February 2027	Confirmed amount, means test, and rollout date
Livelihoods Grant go-live	1 April 2027	Successor to the SRD, likely absorbs court-directed reforms

None of these dates changes what you receive in August, September or October 2026. The R370 amount continues, the R624 means test continues, and the monthly application cycle continues exactly as it does today.

What SRD Recipients Should Do Right Now

The most important thing is to stay in the system. If the eligibility rules are eventually widened and the amount lifted, the automated migration will use the last several months of approval history to place recipients on the new grant. People whose files are dormant, or who have not been checking their status regularly, could miss the automated pull.

Practical steps for August and September 2026:

The Bigger Picture

The ruling is being read as the strongest judicial pressure on the SRD framework since the grant was introduced in 2020. It arrives at a time when National Treasury is already juggling the transition to the Livelihoods Grant, the phased withdrawal of the R370 top-up, and the wider Budget 2026 social spending envelope. Any expansion of SRD eligibility has to be reconciled with those existing commitments.

For recipients, the practical picture is simple. Nothing changes for the August 2026 payment window. The court's finding is a green light for reform, not the reform itself. The next real signals will come at the October 2026 MTBPS and the February 2027 Budget. Until then, R370 is still R370, the R624 means test is still active, and the monthly cycle continues.